Education expansion and income inequality: evidence from Poland (2005–2019)

Leszek Morawski

doi:https://doi.org/10.59139/stattrans-2025-025

Education expansion and income inequality: evidence from Poland (2005–2019)

Leszek Morawski 1Faculty of Economic Sciences, University of Warsaw, Poland ORCID:https://orcid.org/000-0000-0003-3464-3963 Statistics in Transition new series, vol. 26, 2025, 3, pages: 15-34 Published online: 5 September 2025 https://doi.org/10.59139/stattrans-2025-025 Citation: Morawski L., 2025. Education expansion and income inequality: evidence from Poland (2005-2019). Statistics in Transition new series, 26(3), pp. 15-34 https://doi.org/10.59139/stattrans-2025-025

20 Views 5 Downloads

ARTICLE

(English) PDF

ABSTRACT

In Poland, between 2005 and 2019, the share of the employed with tertiary education among men increased by about 10 percentage points and among women by about 18 percentage points. We study the impact of this change on relative income poverty and income inequality using a microsimulation decomposition based on a tax-benefit microsimulation model. We show that the educational change reduced poverty and income inequality incidence and depth. Using a microsimulation approach, we estimate that the impact of the abovementioned educational change on the changing material poverty risk corresponds to 40% of the policy effect associated with changes in tax and benefit regulations. For the Gini index, the educational effect amounted to 91% of the policy effect. The results show that educational changes in Poland between 2005 and 2019 have significantly reduced income inequality and the risk of material poverty.

KEYWORDS

relative income poverty, income inequality, tertiary education, tax and benefit regulations, Poland

REFERENCES

Abdullah, A., Doucouliagos, H.and Manning, E., (2015). Does education reduce income inequality? A meta-regression analysis. Journal of Economic Surveys, 29, pp. 301–316.

Bargain, O., Callan, T., (2010). Analysing the effects of tax-benefit reforms on income distribution: a decomposition approach. The Journal of Economic Inequality, 8, pp. 1–21.

Bargain, O., Callan, T., Doorley, K. and Keane, C., (2017). Changes in income distributions and the role of tax-benefit policy during the great recession: An international perspective. Fiscal Studies, 38, pp. 559–585.

Bargain, O., Morawski, L., Myck, M. and Socha, M., (2007). As SIMPL as that: introducing a tax-benefit microsimulation model for Poland. IZA Discussion Papers (2988) .

Becker, G. S., (1964). Human capital, New York: Columbia University.

Bourguignon, F., Spadaro, A., (2006). Microsimulation as a tool for evaluating redistribution policies. Journal of Economic Inequality, 4(1), pp. 77–106.

DiNardo, J., Fortin, N. M. and Thomas, L., (2006). Labor market institutions and the distribution of wages, 1973-1992: A semiparametric approach. Econometrica, 64(5), pp. 1001–1044.

Figari, F., Paulus, A. and Sutherland, H., (2015). Microsimulation and policy analysis, in B. Atkinson, A. and F. Bourguignon, eds, Handbook of Income Distribution, Elsevier, pp. 2141–2221.

Główny Urza˛d Statystyczny, (2020). Zasie˛g ubóstwa ekonomicznego w Polsce w 2019 r.

Główny Urza˛d Statystyczny, (2022). Dochody i warunki z˙ycia ludnos´ci Polski – raport z badania EU-SILC 2021.

Haan, P., Morawski, L. and Myck, M., (2008). Taxes, benefits and financial incentives to work. Britain, Germany and Poland compared. Bank i Kredyt, 39(1), pp. 5–33.

Hershbein, B. H., Schettini Kearney, M. and Pardue, L. W., (2020). College attainment, income inequality, and economic security: a simulation exercise, NBER Working Paper Series 26747, pp. 1–42.

Hovhannisyan, A., Castillo-Ponce, R. and Valdez, R. I., (2019). The determinants of income inequality: The role of education. Scientific Annals of Economics and Business, 66(4), pp. 451–464.

Jenkins, S. P., (2009). Distributionally-sensitive inequality indices and the gb2 income distribution. Review of Income and Wealth, 55(2), pp. 392–398.

Knight, J. B., Sabot, R. H., (1983). Educational expansion and the Kuznets effect. The American Economic Review, 73(5), pp. 1132–1136.

Kowalik, Z., Magda, I., (2021). Rynek pracy w Polsce – przemiany i wyzwania. Ubezpiecenia Społeczne. Teoria i praktyka, 5, pp. 5–21.

Kuznets, S., (1955). Economic growth and income inequality. The American Economic Review, 65(1), pp. 1–28.

Makhlouf, Y., Lalley, C., (2023). Education expansion, income inequality and structural transformation: Evidence from OECD countries. Social Indicators Research,(169), pp. 255–281.

Morawski, L., Brzezi´nski, M., (2023). How do right-wing populist majoritarian governments redistribute? Evidence from Poland, 2005–2019. Social Policy Administration, 58(3), pp. 521–539.

Myck, M., Domitrz, A., Morawski, L. and Semeniuk, A., (2015). Financial incentives to work in the context of a complex reform package and growing wages: the Polish experience 2005–2011. Baltic Journal of Economics, 15(2), pp. 99–121.

Myck, M., Najsztub, M., (2015). Data and Model Cross-validation to Improve Accuracy of Microsimulation Results: Estimates for the Polish Household Budget Survey. International Journal of Microsimulation, 8(1), pp. 33–66.

Myck, M., Najsztub, M., (2016). Distributional Consequences of Tax and Benefit Policies in Poland: 2005-2014, CenEA Working Paper Series (WP02/16), pp. 1–45.

OECD, (2021). Education at a Glance 2021: OECD Indicators, OECD Publishing, Paris.

Panek, T., (2017). Polaryzacja ekonomiczna w Polsce. Wiadomo´sci Statystyczne (The Polish Statistician) , 62(1), pp. 5–23.

Peichl, A., (2009). The benefits and problems of linking micro and macro models: Evidence from a flat tax analysis. Journal of Applied Economics, 12(2), pp. 301–329.

Ram, R., (1984). Population increase, economic growth, educational inequality, and income distribution: Some recent evidence. Journal of Development Economics, 14(3), pp. 419–428.

Rehme, G., (2007). Education, economic growth and measured income inequality. Economica, 74(295), pp. 493–514.

Samano-Robles, C., (2018). The impact of education on income inequality in Latin America between 2000 and 2010, in Inequality, Taxation and Intergenerational Transmission (Research on Economic Inequality, Vol. 26), Emerald Publishing Limited, pp. 109–148.

Schultz, T. W., (1961). Investment in human capital. The American Economic Review, 51(1), pp. 1–17.

Sianesi, B., Reenen, J. V., (2003). The returns to education: Macroeconomics. Journal of Economic Surveys, 17(2), pp. 157–200.

Spence, M., (1973). Job market signaling. The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 87(3), pp. 355– 374.

Szarfenberg, R., (2023). Success in agenda setting through failure in policy-making: Exploring a new policy venue in the Polish European Semester 2012–2022, International Journal of Social Welfare, 32, pp. 113–125.

Tasseva, I. V., (2021). The changing education distribution and income inequality in Great Britain, Review of Income and Wealth, 67(3), pp. 659–683.