Application of the nonlinear splines model to forecast changes in the construction costs index

Mariusz Kubus; Łukasz Mach; Przemysław Misiurski

doi:https://doi.org/10.59139/stattrans-2025-040

Application of the nonlinear splines model to forecast changes in the construction costs index

Mariusz Kubus Centre of Education and Mathematics Applications, Opole University of Technology, Opole, Poland ORCID:https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6602-2742 , Łukasz Mach Institute of Economics and Finance, Faculty of Economics, University of Opole, Opole, Poland ORCID:https://orcid.org/0000-0002-8200-4261 , Przemysław Misiurski Department of Enterprise Management, E-business and Electronic Economy, Opole University of Technology, Opole, Poland ORCID:https://orcid.org/0000-0002-7052-8535 Statistics in Transition new series, vol. 26, 2025, 4, pages: 69-87 Published online: 5 December 2025 https://doi.org/10.59139/stattrans-2025-040 Citation: Kubus M., Mach Ł., Misiurski P., 2025. Application of the nonlinear splines model to forecast changes in the construction costs index. Statistics in Transition new series, 26(4), pp. 69-87 https://doi.org/10.59139/stattrans-2025-040

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ABSTRACT

The research presents the application of the nonlinear splines model to forecast the construction costs index (CCI), which is an important macroeconomic indicator. Due to the long-term nature of the investments in the construction market, we tested our model in a tenmonth ahead period. Except minor disruptions, which were likely related to COVID-19, we obtained promising results, which definitely outperformed the classical ARIMA and its variant with nonlinear autocorrelation functions modeled with neural network. The achieved forecast results will enable both the demand and supply in the construction market to be in market equilibrium and minimize the formation of speculative bubbles in the market.

KEYWORDS

construction market, nonlinear splines model, forecast, non-stationary time series

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