Stanisław Jaworski , Zofia Zielińska-Kolasińska

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Quarterly employment rates in European countries are analysed in terms of the likelihood of achieving a specific employment rate within age and gender groups in a five-year horizon. The German employment rate serves as a benchmark for this research. The likelihood is estimated by a Monte-Carlo simulation based on the class of exponential smoothing models. The research presents a pessimistic prognosis of employment rates in European countries with respect to young and partly to older workers.


employment rate, exponential smoothing, forecasting, state space approach


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