Special Issue 2022 – Call for Papers
A New Role for Statistics: The Joint Special Issue of "Statistics in Transition New Series" (SiTns) and "Statystyka Ukraïny" (SU)
Stanisław Jaworski https://orcid.org/0000-0002-6169-2886 , Zofia Zielińska-Kolasińska https://orcid.org/000-0001-8845-758X
ARTICLE

(English) PDF

ABSTRACT

Quarterly employment rates in European countries are analysed in terms of the likelihood of achieving a specific employment rate within age and gender groups in a five-year horizon. The German employment rate serves as a benchmark for this research. The likelihood is estimated by a Monte-Carlo simulation based on the class of exponential smoothing models. The research presents a pessimistic prognosis of employment rates in European countries with respect to young and partly to older workers.

KEYWORDS

employment rate, exponential smoothing, forecasting, state space approach

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