Cohort patterns of fertility in Poland based on  staging process – generations 1930-1980

Wioletta  Grzenda; Ewa  Frątczak

Cohort patterns of fertility in Poland based on staging process – generations 1930-1980

Wioletta Grzenda Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, Institute of Statistics and Demography. Poland. , Ewa Frątczak Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, Institute of Statistics and Demography. Poland. Statistics in Transition new series, vol. 19, 2018, 2, pages: 315-330 Published online: 1 June 2018

106 Views 9 Downloads

ARTICLE

(English) PDF

ABSTRACT

As a transition country in the region of Central and Eastern Europe, Poland has experienced unprecedented changes in the fertility. Currently, the total fertility rate level is very low, ca. 1.3 children per woman, which is below the replacement level. Many studies have described changes in fertility based on the crosssectional approach. However, the changes of cohort fertility have been described not quite sufficiently. Our paper complements this gap by the assessment of stochastic fertility tables, calculated for five-year generations of women born in the period 1930-1980. The main goal of this study is to analyse changes in the cohort patterns of female fertility in Poland.

KEYWORDS

cohort fertility, stochastic process, stage probabilities.

REFERENCES

BECKER, G., (1991). A Treatise on the Family, Enlarged Edition, Cambridge: Harvard University Press.

BOLESŁAWSKI, L., (1975). Marriage and childbearing probability (cohort life tables), Warsaw: Central Statistical Office of Poland, (in Polish).

BOLESŁAWSKI, L., (1974). Generation-based fertility tables of women, Warsaw: Central Statistical Office of Poland, (in Polish).

BUMPASS, L., (1990). What's happening to the family? Interactions between demographic and institutional changes. Demography, 27 (4), pp. 483–498.

CENTRAL STATISTICAL OFFICE OF POLAND, (2014). Population forecast for 2014-2050 period, Warsaw, (in Polish).

CHIANG, C. L., (1985). A Staging Process with Applications in Biology and Medicine, Mathematics in Biology and Medicine, 57, pp. 374–385.

CHIANG, C. L., (1984). The Life Table and Its Applications, Florida: Krieger.

CHIANG, C. L., (1980). An Introduction to Stochastic Processes and Their Applications, New York: Krieger.

CHIANG, C. L., (1968). Introduction to Stochastic Processes in Biostatistics, New York: Wiley.

CHIANG, C. L., Van Den Berg B. J., (1982). A fertility table for the analysis of human reproduction, Mathematical Biosciences, 62 (2), pp. 237–251.

CHENG, P. C. R., LIN, E. S., (2010). Completing incomplete cohort fertility schedules, Demographic Research, 23 (9), pp. 223–256.

CIGNO, A., (1994). Consideration in the Timing of Births, Theory and Evidence, In: J., Ermisch, N., Ogaza ed, The Family, The Market and the State in the Ageing Societies. Oxford: Clarendon Press.

EASTERLIN, R. A., (1979). The Economics and Sociology of Fertility: A Synthesis, In: Ch. Tilly, ed. Historical Studies of Changing Fertility, Princeton.

EASTERLIN, R., (1976). The conflict between aspirations and resources,Population and Development Review, 2 (3), pp. 417–425.

FRĄTCZAK, E., (1996). Cohort analyses of fertility based on Polish retrospective Survey 1988 „Life Course – family, occupational and migratory biographies”, Warsaw: Polish Demographic Society, (in Polish).

FRĄTCZAK, E., (2001). Family tables of life Poland 1988/1989, 1994/1995, Monografie i Opracowania (485), Warsaw: Warsaw School of Economics, (in Polish).

FRĄTCZAK, E., PTAK-CHMIELEWSKA, A. ed., (2011a). Fertility in Poland –cohort analysis: birth cohorts 1911–1986, Vol. I. Warsaw: WSE.

FRĄTCZAK, E., PTAK-CHMIELEWSKA, A. ed., (2011b). Fertility and Nuptiality in Poland – cohort analysis: birth cohorts 1911–1986, Vol. II. Warsaw: WSE.

FRĄTCZAK, E., GRZENDA, W. (2011). Fertility life tables based on stochastic process, In: The selected problems of socio-demographic development of Poland and research methods, Prace i Materiały WZ UG, 2/3, pp. 7–20, (in Polish).

FRĄTCZAK, E., KOZŁOWSKI, W., (2005). Family status life tables. Poland 1988/1989, 1994/1995, 2002, Warsaw: WSE, (in Polish).

FREJKA, T., GIETEL-BASTEN, S., ABOLINA, L., ABULADZE, L., AKSYONOVA, S., AKRAP, A., FOLDES, I., (2016). Fertility and family policies in Central and Eastern Europe after 1990, Comparative Population Studies, 41 (1), pp. 3–56.

FREJKA, T., SARDON, J-P., (2004). Childbearing trends and prospects in low fertility countries. A cohort analysis, The Netherlands: Kluwer Academic Publishers.

FREJKA, T., CALOT, G., (2001). Cohort reproductive patterns in low-fertility countries, Population and Development Review, 27 (1), pp. 103–132.

GRAUNT, J., (1962). Natural and political observations mentioned in a following index, and made upon the bills of mortality. [online] Available at: [Accessed 26 May 2018].

KOTOWSKA, I., JÓŹWIAK, J., MATYSIAK, A., BARANOWSKA, A., (2008). Poland: Fertility decline as a response to profound societal and labour market changes, Demographic Research, 19 (22), pp. 795–854.

LEE, R. D., (1974). Forecasting births in post-transition populations: Stochastic renewal with serially correlated fertility, Journal of the American Statistical Association, 69(347), pp. 607–617.

LESTHAEGHE, R., (1998). On Theory Development: Applications to the Study of Family Formation, Population and Development Review, 24 (1), pp. 1–14.

LESTHAEGHE, R., (1991). The Second Demographic Transition in Western Countries: An Interpretation IPD Working Paper, pp. 1991–2.

LESTHAEGHE, R., SURKYN, J., (1988). Cultural dynamics and economic theories of fertility change, Population and Development Review, 14 (1), pp. 1–45.

LIU, X., (2012). Survival analysis: models and applications, John Wiley & Sons.

MCDONALD, P., (2008). Very Low Fertility Consequences, Causes and Policy Approaches, The Japanese Journal of Population, 6 (1), pp. 19–23.

MCDONALD, P., (2006). Low Fertility and the State: The Efficacy of Policy,Population and Development Review, 32 (3), pp. 485–510.

NAMBOODIRI, K., (1991). Demographic Analysis, A Stochastic Approach, California: Academic Press.

NAMBOODIRI, K., SUCHINDRAN, C. M., (1987). Life Table Techniques and Their Applications, New York: Academic Press.

OLAH L. S., FRĄTCZAK E. (eds.), (2013). Childbearing Women’s Employment and Work-Life Balance Policies in Temporary Europe, Hampshire: Palgrave and Macmillan.

PARADYSZ, J., (1992). Women's fertility in Poland, Materials and statistical studies, NC’88, Warsaw: Central Statistical Office of Poland, (in Polish).

SOBOTKA, T., ZEMAN, K., LESTHAEGHE, R., FREJKA, T., NEELS, K., (2012). Postponement and recuperation in cohort fertility: Austria, Germany and Switzerland in a European context, Comparative Population Studies, 36 (2–3).

SOBOTKA, T., (2003). Tempo-quantum and period-cohort interplay in fertility changes in Europe, Evidence from the Czech Republic, Italy, the Netherlands and Sweden. Demographic Research, 8 (6), pp. 151–214.

VAN DE KAA, D. J., (1996). Anchored Narratives: The story and Findings of Half a Century of Research into the Determinants of Fertility, Population Studies, 50, pp. 389–432.

VAN DE KAA, D. J., (1994). The Second Demographic Transition Revisited: Theories and Expectations, In: G. Beets et al. (eds.), Population and family in the Low Countries 1993: Late fertility and other current issues, Swets and Zeitlinger, Berwyn, Pennsylvania/Amsterdam: NIDI/CBGS Publication, 30, pp. 81–126.

VAN DE KAA, D. J., (1987). Europe's second demographic transition, Population Bulletin, 42 (1).

WILLEKENS, F., (1991) Life table analysis of staging processes, In: H. Becker (ed.), Life histories and generations, Utrecht: ISOR Press, pp. 477–518