ARTICLE
ABSTRACT
The article refers to the shift in methods to conduct a population census: from a conventional enumeration through a sample survey and a mixed approach to administrative data, as a new standard in statistics. The paper compares two Polish censuses of 2002 and 2011. It is aimed at quality assessment in the case of both: the traditional method (2002 census) and the combined approach (2011 census). The quality of census data is discussed with essential aims and objectives to provide reliable information on the population age and sex structure in detailed territorial division. Therefore, quality assessment is provided for the whole country and at regional level. First of all, coverage errors are considered. We use multiple sources of data and non-matching methods, in particular: demographic analysis based on previous censuses, vital statistics and a comparison with other existing sources. Different cross-sections according to sex, age and place of residence are considered. In each separate domain adequacy and divergence assessments are accompanied by an attempt to provide substantive explanations.
KEYWORDS
population census quality, register-based census, coverage errors.
REFERENCES
AL, P. G., BAKKER, B. F. M., (2000). Re-engineering Social Statistics by Micro-integration of Different Sources; An Introduction. “Netherlands Official Statistics”. Volume 15. Summer 2000. Special issue: Integrating Administrative Registers and Household Surveys. Statistics Netherlands.
BAFFOUR, B., KING, T., VALENTE, P., (2013). The Modern Census: Evolution, Examples and Evaluation. “International Statistical Review” (2013), 81, 3, pp. 407–425, DOI: 10.1111/insr.12036
BALDRIGE, M., BROWN, C. J., JONES, S., KEANE, J. G., (1985). Evaluating Censuses of Population and Housing. Department of Commerce. United States of America/US Bureau of the Census.
BARWIŃSKI, M., (2014). Ethnic Structure of Polish Population in the Light of the Results of 2011 Census [Struktura narodowościowa Polski w świetle wyników spisu powszechnego z 2011 roku]. „Przegląd Geograficzny”, 86 (2), pp. 217–241.
BERKA, C., HUMER, S., LENK, M., MOSER, M., RECHTA, H., SCHWERER, E., (2010). A quality framework for statistics based on administrative data sources using the example of the Austrian census 2011, “Austrian Journal of Statistics”, No. 39.
BERKA, C., HUMER, S., LENK, M., MOSER, M., RECHTA, H., SCHWERER, E., (2012). Combination of evidence from multiple administrative data sources: quality assessment of the Austrian register-based census 2011. “Statistica Neerlandica”, Vol. 66, Issue 1, 18–33.
BETHLEHEM, J., (2009). The Rise of Survey Sampling, Discussion paper (09015), Statistics Netherlands.
BORKET, M., PENNINX, R., (2011). Policymaking in the Field of Migration and Integration in Europe: An Introduction. [in:] G. Zincone, R. Penninx, M. Borkert (ed.), Migration Policymaking in Europe. The Dynamics of Actors and Contexts in Past and Present, Amsterdam: IMISCOE Research. Amsterdam University Press, pp. 7–21.
BROWN, J., ABBOTT, O., DIAMOND, I., (2006). Dependence in the 2001 one number census project. “Journal of Royal Statistical Society”, A, 169, pp. 883–902.
CBOS, (2013). Was It Worth It to Change the System? Assessment of Social Change After 1989. [Czy warto było zmieniać ustrój? Społeczna ocena przemian po 1989 roku]. Statement from research, BS/73/2013.
CHATFIELD, C., (2002). Confession of a Pragmatic Statistician. “The Statistician”, Vol. 51, No. 1. (2002), pp. 1–20.
CSO, (2012). The Report on the Results. The National Census of Population and Housing 2011 [Raport z wyników. Narodowy Spis Powszechny Ludności I Mieszkań 2011], Warsaw.
CSO, (2013). Higher Education Institutions and their Finances in 2012 [Szkoły wyższe i ich finanse w 2012 roku], Warsaw.
FIHEL, A., KACZMARCZYK, P., OKÓLSKI, M., (2006). Labour Mobility in the Enlarged European Union. CMR Working Paper, No. 14/72.
FOSU, G. B., (2001). Evaluation of population census data through demographic analysis. Symposium on Global Review of 2000 Round of Population and Housing Censuses: Mid-Decade Assessment and Future Prospects Statistics Division Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations Secretariat New York, 7-10 August 2001.
GOŁATA, E., (2009). Economic Activity in Population Census 2011 and Administration Resources [Aktywność ekonomiczna ludności w NSP’2011 a zasoby rejestrów administracyjnych] [in:] Methods and Sources of Information in the public statistics [Metody i Źródła Pozyskiwania Informacji w Statystyce Publicznej], Published by: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu, Poznan.
GOŁATA, E., (2012). Population Census And Truth (Spis ludności i prawda). „Studia Demograficzne”. Polish Academy of Sciences, 161 (1), pp. 23–55.
HOLT, T., (2007). The Official Statistics Olympic Challenge: Wider, Deeper, Quicker, Better, Cheaper. Discussion. “The American Statistician”, Vol. 61 (1), pp. 1–8.
JANTA, B., (2013). Polish Migrants’ Reproductive Behaviour in the United Kingdom. “Studia migracyjne – Przegląd Polonijny”, No. 3, 63–96.
JOŃCZY, R., (2010). International Migration From Rural Areas of Opolskie Province After the Polish Accession to the European Union. Selected Economic and Demographic Aspects [Migracje zagraniczne z obszarów wiejskich województwa opolskiego po akcesji Polski do Unii Europejskiej. Wybrane aspekty ekonomiczne i demograficzne]. Published by: Wydawnictwo Instytut Śląski Sp. z o.o. Opole–Wroclaw.
JÓZEFOWSKI, T., RYNARZEWSKA-PIETRZAK, B., (2010). Evaluation of the Possibilities to Use the PESEL Register in the Population Census [Ocena możliwości wykorzystania rejestru PESEL w spisie ludności]. [in:] The Measurement and Information in the Economy [Pomiar i informacja w gospodarce]. Scientific Notebook of the Faculty of Informatics and Electronic Economy. E. Gołata (ed.). Published by: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu, Poznan.
KICINGER, A., KORYŚ, I., (2011). A new Field to Conquer and Manage: Migration Policymaking in Poland after 1989, [in:] G. Zincone, R. Penninx, M. Borkert (ed.), Migration Policymaking in Europe. The Dynamics of Actors and Contexts in Past and Present, Amsterdam: IMISCOE Research. Amsterdam University Press, pp. 347–376.
KLIMANEK, T., (2012). The Results of the Study of Migratory Behavior of the Inhabitants of Poznan [Wyniki badania zachowań migracyjnych mieszkańców Poznania], [in:] Migration of the Residents of Large Cities [Migracje mieszkańców dużych miast], E. Gołata (ed.). Published by: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu, Poznan.
KOBUS, P., SMOLKA, M., NOWAKOWSKA, G., (2009). Report on the Works on the Files of Comprehensive Social Insurance System [Raport z prac na zbiorach kompleksowego systemu informatycznego ZUS], CSO: Central Bureau of Census [Centralne Biuro Spisów GUS], Warsaw.
KORDOS, J., (2007). Some Aspects of Post-Enumeration Surveys in Poland. „Statistics in Transition – new series”, Vol. 8 (3). pp. 563–576.
KORDOS, J., (2012). The Interplay Between Sample Survey Theory And Practice In Poland [Współzależność pomiędzy rozwojem teorii i praktyki badań reprezentacyjnych w Polsce] „Przegląd Statystyczny” Special Issue 1 –2012. pp. 61–68. Polish Academy of Sciences.
KUC, M., (2014). Najstarszy człowiek świata żyje w Polsce. W bazie PESEL. [The oldest man in the world lives in Poland. In the PESEL database.], “Gazeta Prawna”. 4.06.2014. Warsaw. http://prawo.gazetaprawna.pl/artykuly/801115,najstarszy-czlowiek-swiata zyje-w-polsce-w-bazie-pesel.html.
LONGVA, THOMSEN, SEVEREIDE, (1998). Reducing Costs of Censuses in Norway Through Use of Administrative Registers. Statistics Norway 1998.
MRYSKALA, P., (2011). Use of Registers and Administrative Data Sources for Statistical Purposes. Best Practices of Statistics Finland. A Handbook of Principles and Practices. Statistics Finland.
NEWELL, R., SMALLWOOD, S., (2010). A cross country review of the validation and/or adjustment of census data. Population Trends, No. 141, Office for National Statistics.
ONS, (2013). Detailed Country of Birth and Nationality Analysis from the 2011 Census of England and Wales.
PARADYSZ, J., (2002). The Non-random Errors in the Fertility Survey within the 1970 Population Census (O błędach nielosowych w badaniu dzietności kobiet w ramach Narodowego Spisu Powszechnego 1970). [in:] Population censuses in the Republic of Poland from 1921 to 2002. Selected Writings by Demographers [Spisy ludności Rzeczypospolitej Polskiej 1921–2002. Wybór pism demografów]. Z. Strzelecki. T. Toczyński (eds.). Polish Demographic Society. Central Statistical Office [Polskie Towarzystwo Demograficzne. Główny Urząd Statystyczny], Warsaw, pp. 479–482.
PARADYSZ, J., (2010). The Necessity for Use of Indirect Estimation in Population Censuses [Konieczność estymacji pośredniej na użytek spisów powszechnych]. [in:] The Measurement and Information in the Economy [Pomiar i informacja w gospodarce]. Scientific Notebook of the Faculty of Informatics and Electronic Economy. E. Gołata (ed.). Published by: Wydawnictwo Uniwersytetu Ekonomicznego w Poznaniu, Poznan.
PLEWIS, I., SIMPSON, L., WILLIAMSON, P. (2011). Census 2011: Independent review of coverage assessment, adjustment and quality assurance. Available at: www.ons.gov.uk/ons/guide-method/census/2011/the-2011-census/the-2011-censusproject/independent-assessments/independent-review-of-coverage assessment-- adjustment-and-quality-assurance/independent-review-final report.pdf
REGULATION (EU), No 1260/2013 of the European Parliament and of the Council of 20 November 2013 on European demographic statistics Text with EEA relevance. Available at:http://eur-lex.europa.eu/legal content/EN/TXT/?uri=CELEX:32013R1260.
REPORT, (2011). The National Census of Population and Housing 2011 in Assessment of the Ukrainian Minority [Raport. Narodowy Spis Powszechny Ludności i Mieszkań 2011 w ocenie mniejszości ukraińskiej]. 2011. Association of Ukrainians in Poland, Warsaw.
ROSZKA, W., (2013). Statistical Data Integration in Socio-Economic Research [Statystyczna integracja danych w badaniach społeczno-ekonomicznych]. PhD Thesis. Poznan University of Economics. Available at: http://www.wbc.poznan.pl/Content/265243/Roszka_Wojciech_doktorat.pdf.
RUGGLES, S., (2014). Big Microdata for Population Research. “Demography” 51, 287–297.
SAKSON, B., (2002). The impact of "invisible" migration of the eighties on the demographic structure of Polish Population [Wpływ “niewidzialnych” migracji zagranicznych lat osiemdziesiątych na struktury demograficzne Polski]. Monographs and Studies, No. 481, Warsaw School of Economics. Warsaw.
ŚLESZYŃSKI, P., (2004). Regional Disparities Between Population According to the 2002 Population Census and Based on the Current Recording [Regionalne różnice pomiędzy liczbą ludności według narodowego spisu powszechnego w 2002 r. i rejestrowaną na podstawie ewidencji bieżącej], „Studia Demograficzne”, 145 (1), pp. 93–103.
ŚLESZYŃSKI, P., (2005). Differences in the Numer of Population Disclosed in the National Census 2002 [Różnice liczby ludności ujawnione w Narodowym Spisie Powszechnym 2002]. „Przegląd Geograficzny”, 77 (2), pp.193–212.
Statistics Denmark, (1995). Statistics on Persons in Denmark – a register-based statistical system. Statistics Denmark.
STATISTICS FINLAND, (2004). Use of Registers and Administrative Data Sources for Statistical Purposes. Best Practices of Statistics Finland. Tilastokeskus. Statistikcentralen. Statistics Finland. Helsinki.
STATISTICS NETHERLAND, (2004). The Dutch Virtual Census of 2001. Analysis and Methodology. Ed. Eric Schulte Nordholt, Marijke Hartgers and Rita Gircour. Statistics Netherlands, Voorburg/Heerlen, 2004.
UN, (2006). Conference of European Statisticians Recommendations for the 2010 Censuses of Population and Housing. 2006. New York. Geneva. United Nations Economic Commissions for Europe. Statistical Office of the European Communities. ECE/CES/STAT/NONE/2006/4. UN Publications.
UN, (2007). Register-based Statistics in the Nordic Countries. Review of Best Practices with Focus on Population and Social Statistics. United Nations Economic Commission For Europe. United Nations. New York, Geneva, 2007.
UN, (2009). Manual on Census Evaluation. Post Enumeration Surveys. Demographic And Social Statistics Branch, United Nations Statistics Division.
UN, (2010). Post Enumeration Surveys Operational Guidelines. Technical Report. United Nations Statistics Division New York, April 2010.
UN, (2010a). Report on the Results of a Survey on Census Methods used by Countries in the 2010 Census Round. Department of Economic and Social Affairs United Nations. New York, Available at: http://unstats.un.org/unsd/census2010.htm.
UN, (2011). Using Administrative and Secondary Sources for Official Statistics. United Nations Economic Commission For Europe. United Nations. New York, Geneva, 2011.
UN, (2012). Overview of the 2010 round of population and housing censuses in the UNECE region. ECE/CES/ GE.41/2012/20, 16 May 2012.
UN, (2012a). Lessons learned from the Population and Housing Census in Poland. Note by the Central Statistical Office of Poland. Economic Commission for Europe.
UN, (2012b). Quality assessment of register-based census data in Austria,ECE/CES. Working Paper 16, 16 May 2012.
UN, (2013). Overview of National Experiences for Population and Housing Censuses of the 2010 Round. United Nations Statistics Division, 2013, New York June 2013.
UN, (2013a). Field operations. Legislation. Lessons Learned: Key Results of the UNECE Survey on National Census Practices and First Proposals About the CES Recommendations for the 2020 Census Round. Note by the UNECE Steering Group on Population and Housing Censuses. Geneva. 30 September – 3 October 2013. ECE/CES/GE.41/2013/6.
UN, (2013b). Census quality and coverage: Key results of the UNECE Survey on National Census Practices. Note by the UNECE Task Force on census coverage and quality. ECE/CES/ GE.41/2013/8. Geneva. 30 September –3 October 2013.
WALLER, L., BERRINGTON A., RAYMER J., (2014). New Insights into the Fertility Patterns of Recent Polish Migrants in the United Kingdom. “Journal of Population Research”. DOI: 10.1007/s12546-014-9125-5.
WALLGREN, A., WALLGREN, B., (2007, 2014). Register-based Statistics. Statistical Methods for Administrative Data. John Wiley & Sons. Ltd.
WALLGREN, A., WALLGREN, B., (2013). Quality Assessment in Systems with Registers and Sample Surveys. http://www.statistics.gov.hk/wsc/IPS078-P2-S.pdf.
VALENTE, P., (2010). Census taking in Europe: how are populations counted in 2010? “Population & Societies”, No. 467.
VAN DER LAAN, P., (2000). Integrating administrative registers and household surveys, “Netherlands Official Statistics”, Vol. 15, Summer 2000, Special issue: Integrating administrative registers and household surveys, Statistics Netherlands, Voorburg/Heerlen.
ZASĘPA, R., (1993). Use of Sampling Methods in Population Censuses in Poland, “Statistics in Transition”, Vol. 1, Number 1, June 1993.
ZHANG, L.-C., (2011). A Unit-Error Theory for Register-Based Household Statistics. „Journal of Official Statistics”, Vol. 27(3), pp. 415–432.
ZHANG, L.-C., (2012). Topics of Statistical Theory for Register-based Statistics and Data Integration. Statistica Neerlandica, Vol. 66, No. 1. pp. 41–63.
ZHANG, L.-C., (2013). Population Size Estimation Based on Multiple Lists. Uncertainty Analysis for Categorical Data Fusion. Open Lecture given at Poznan University of Economics.
ZUMPE, J., DORMON, O., JEFFERIES, J., (2012). Childbearing Among UK Born and Non-UK Born Women Living in the UK, ONS, 25 October 2012
