Operationalization and Estimation of Balanced Development Index for Poland 1999-2016

Andrzej K.  Koźmiński; Adam  Noga; Katarzyna  Piotrowska; Krzysztof  Zagórski

doi:https://doi.org/10.59170/stattrans-2015-025

Operationalization and Estimation of Balanced Development Index for Poland 1999-2016

Andrzej K. Koźmiński President, Kozminski University, Warsaw, Poland. , Adam Noga Department of Economics, Kozminski University, Warsaw, Poland. , Katarzyna Piotrowska Department of Statistical Methods and Informatics, Kozminski University, Warsaw, Poland. , Krzysztof Zagórski Empirical Sociology Center, Kozminski University, Warsaw, Poland. Statistics in Transition new series, vol. 16, 2015, 3, pages: 461-478 Published online: 1 September 2015 https://doi.org/10.59170/stattrans-2015-025

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ABSTRACT

Stemming from assumption that Gross Domestic Product is an index oversimplifying economic development and not reflecting socio-economic development, the paper presents conceptualization, operationalization and estimation of Balanced Development Index (BDI), concerning both economic and social development in Poland. Actual values of this index as well as its four composite components (middle-level indexes) are presented for 1999-2013. A statistical model allowing estimation of BDI values as well as short-term forecasts is proposed alongside with the concept of balanced development. Application of this model for 1999-2016 is presented.

KEYWORDS

socio-economic development, index, economic indicators, social indicators, balanced development, evaluations, predictions.

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