Agnieszka Przybylska-Mazur
ARTICLE

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ABSTRACT

The forecasts of macroeconomic variables including the forecasts of inflation rate play an important role in estimating future situation in the economy. Knowledge of effective forecasts allows making optimal business, financial and investment decisions. The forecasts of macroeconomic variables and as a result also inflation rate forecasts can be determined by different methods often giving different results. Therefore, in this paper we apply selected tests to the evaluation of the accuracy of inflation rate forecasts determined by different methods.

KEYWORDS

forecast accuracy, parametric tests, Morgan-Granger-Newbold test, Meese-Rogoff test and Diebold-Mariano test

REFERENCES

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HARVEY, D., LEYBOURNE, S., NEWBOLD, P., (1997). Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors. International Journal of Forecasting, 13, pp. 281–291.

ROSSI, B., (2005). Testing Long-horizon Predictive Ability with High Persistence, and the Meese-Rogoff Puzzle, International Economic Review, vol. 46, issue 1, pp. 61–92

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