Forecasting of migration matrices in business demography

Piotr  Gurgul; Paweł  Zając

doi:https://doi.org/10.59170/stattrans-2012-030

Forecasting of migration matrices in business demography

Piotr Gurgul Piotr Gurgul, AGH University of Science and Technology, Department of Computer Science, Cracow, Poland. , Paweł Zając AGH University of Science and Technology, Department of Applications of Mathematics in Economics, Cracow, Poland Statistics in Transition new series, vol. 13, 2012, 2, pages: 387-404 Published online: 1 June 2012 https://doi.org/10.59170/stattrans-2012-030

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ABSTRACT

This paper demonstrates that the forecast of migration matrices can be conducted by means of updating procedures, well-known in the I-O theory. The authors use some of the most popular I-O updating procedures (RAS and some nonbiproportional approaches) and calculate measures of the ex-post error of predictions. While taking into account the measures of distance between two matrices, a ranking of forecasting methods of migration matrices (forecast horizon one) is established. Finally, the advantages and drawbacks of particular forecasting methods with respect to one-step ex-post forecasts of migration matrices are discussed.

KEYWORDS

Births and deaths of enterprises, migration in branches of industry, prediction, updating methods.

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